Final
Final
Miami Dolphins @ Las Vegas Raiders
13 – 27
LV -14.5 —Total 40.5 —
Biggest swing↓ 11.5(Pregame → Q3 2:30)
Spread
Current: -14.5Open: -3.0Final Result: -14.0
MIA13—LV27
Miami Dolphins at Las Vegas Raiders · Sep 13, 2026
What happened relative to the locked Pregame baseline (bucket −1 CLOSE)?
| Market | Pregame | In-game Hi | In-game Lo | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Spread LV perspective (home / pregame favorite) | LV -3.0 | LV -2.5 | LV -17.5 | Las Vegas Raiders covered |
| Total | 40.5 | 55.5 | 33.5 | Under |
How the spread, total, and moneyline markets behaved.
Las Vegas Raiders won, Las Vegas Raiders covered. Las Vegas Raiders entered as a 3.0-point favorite but won by only 14. The LV live spread ranged from -17.5 to -2.5. Across tracked live market time, MIA was on the eventual covering side for 17%, while LV was on the covering side for 83%.
The game played to the Under. The pregame total was 40.5 and the teams combined for 40. The live total ranged from 33.5 to 55.5. The prevailing live number ultimately produced an Under result for 54% of tracked time.
Moneyline implied probabilities moved during the game. LV entered at 62.3% implied probability, reached a low of 63.6%, and a high of 99.9%. MIA entered at 42.0%, reached a high of 42.0%, and a low of 2.8%. Las Vegas Raiders ultimately won.
Percentage of tracked in-game time where an entry at the prevailing spread would ultimately have resulted in a Las Vegas cover, Miami cover, or push against the final scoring margin.
Percentage of tracked in-game time where an entry at the prevailing total would ultimately have resulted in an Over, Under, or Push against the final combined score.
Current NFL Beta strategies — qualification, trigger, and stored result.
0 strategies qualified · 0 triggered
| Strategy | Qualified | Triggered | Entry | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| spread_big_favorite_inflation_fade | No | — | — | — |
| spread_low_total_favorite_buyback | No | — | — | — |
| total_low_total_scoring_spike_under | No | — | — | — |
| total_strong_favorite_compression_over | No | — | — | — |
Where the live market may have moved farther than the available game evidence justified.
No high-confidence market overreaction identified from the currently available game evidence.
Frozen Live-style market view. Interactive replay lives on Live.
Open Live for scrubbing, strategy overlays, and Writer Notes.
Completed possessions with drive grades and market during drive.
Drive data unavailable.
Detailed play-by-play was unavailable. Turnover, red-zone and drive-quality conclusions were not generated.
Scrub the full Spread, Total, and Moneyline charts with game events and strategy markers.
Open Live Replay