Final
Final
Atlanta Falcons @ Pittsburgh Steelers
13 – 20
PIT -7.5 —Total 33.5 —
Biggest swing↓ 7.0(Q1 2:30 → Q2 10:00)
Spread
Current: -7.5Open: -6.5Final Result: -7.0
ATL13—PIT20
Atlanta Falcons at Pittsburgh Steelers · Sep 13, 2026
What happened relative to the locked Pregame baseline (bucket −1 CLOSE)?
| Market | Pregame | In-game Hi | In-game Lo | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Spread PIT perspective (home / pregame favorite) | PIT -6.5 | PIT -2.5 | PIT -11.5 | Pittsburgh Steelers covered |
| Total | 40.5 | 47.5 | 32.5 | Under |
How the spread, total, and moneyline markets behaved.
Pittsburgh Steelers won, Pittsburgh Steelers covered. Pittsburgh Steelers entered as a 6.5-point favorite but won by only 7. The PIT live spread ranged from -11.5 to -2.5. Across tracked live market time, ATL was on the eventual covering side for 50%, while PIT was on the covering side for 50%.
The game played to the Under. The pregame total was 40.5 and the teams combined for 33. The live total ranged from 32.5 to 47.5. The prevailing live number ultimately produced an Under result for 87% of tracked time.
Moneyline implied probabilities moved during the game. PIT entered at 74.9% implied probability, reached a low of 62.5%, and a high of 99.0%. ATL entered at 29.4%, reached a high of 44.2%, and a low of 1.6%. Pittsburgh Steelers ultimately won.
Percentage of tracked in-game time where an entry at the prevailing spread would ultimately have resulted in a Pittsburgh cover, Atlanta cover, or push against the final scoring margin.
Percentage of tracked in-game time where an entry at the prevailing total would ultimately have resulted in an Over, Under, or Push against the final combined score.
Current NFL Beta strategies — qualification, trigger, and stored result.
0 strategies qualified · 0 triggered
| Strategy | Qualified | Triggered | Entry | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| spread_big_favorite_inflation_fade | No | — | — | — |
| spread_low_total_favorite_buyback | No | — | — | — |
| total_low_total_scoring_spike_under | No | — | — | — |
| total_strong_favorite_compression_over | No | — | — | — |
Where the live market may have moved farther than the available game evidence justified.
No high-confidence market overreaction identified from the currently available game evidence.
Frozen Live-style market view. Interactive replay lives on Live.
Open Live for scrubbing, strategy overlays, and Writer Notes.
Completed possessions with drive grades and market during drive.
Drive data unavailable.
Detailed play-by-play was unavailable. Turnover, red-zone and drive-quality conclusions were not generated.
Scrub the full Spread, Total, and Moneyline charts with game events and strategy markers.
Open Live Replay